Description of Individual Course Units
 Course Unit Code Course Unit Title Type of Course Unit Year of Study Semester Number of ECTS Credits 11320203E11836 DECISION THEORY AND MODELS Elective 4 8 5
Level of Course Unit
First Cycle
Objectives of the Course
•To discuss general structure of decision making process, after fundamental characteristics of decision models are evaluated
Name of Lecturer(s)
Assist. Prof. Dr. Burcu ARACIOGLU
Learning Outcomes
 1 To be able to determine numerical methods which can be used to make choice among multiple alternatives. 2 To be able to select best fit method for decision environment, make the right decision by using these methods.
Mode of Delivery
Face to Face
Prerequisites and co-requisities
None
Recommended Optional Programme Components
None
Course Contents
In this course, decision making process under certainty, risk environment and uncertainty, statistical decision theory, game theory, probability theory and decision tree analysis approach subjects will be addressed.
Weekly Detailed Course Contents
 Week Theoretical Practice Laboratory 1 Course objectives and outlines 2 Decision making under uncertainty : The maximin criterion, the maximax criterion, the Laplace criterion, the Hurwitz criterion, the savage criterion 3 Decision rules in risk environment: The maximum possibility criterion, the expected minimum opportunity cost, value of experimentation 4 Decision trees : Drawing a decision tree, evaluating the decision tree, calculating the tree values, calculating the value of uncertain outcome nodes, calculating the value of decision nodes, making decision 5 Game theory: The formulation of two-person, zero-sum games, solving simple games, games with mixed strategies 6 Graphical solution procedure 7 Solving by linear programming 8 Midterm 9 Queuing theory: Basic structure of queuing models 10 Queuing models involving exponential distribution, queuing models based on the birth-death process 11 Queuing models involving nonexponential distributions 12 Queuing networks, single server queuing models 13 Queuing networks, single server queuing models 14 Multiple server queuing models 15 Multiple server queuing models 16 Final Exam
Recommended or Required Reading
Raiffa, Howard, Schlaifer, Robert, “Statistical Decision Theory”, John Wiley & Sons, 1st Edition, (2000).
Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods
Activities are given in detail in the section of "Assessment Methods and Criteria" and "Workload Calculation"
Assessment Methods and Criteria
 Term (or Year) Learning Activities Quantity Weight SUM 0 End Of Term (or Year) Learning Activities Quantity Weight SUM 0 SUM 0
Language of Instruction
English
Work Placement(s)
None