Course Unit Code  Course Unit Title  Type of Course Unit  Year of Study  Semester  Number of ECTS Credits  11320203E11836  DECISION THEORY AND MODELS  Elective  4  8  5 

Level of Course Unit 
First Cycle 
Objectives of the Course 
•To discuss general structure of decision making process, after fundamental characteristics of decision models are evaluated 
Name of Lecturer(s) 
Assist. Prof. Dr. Burcu ARACIOGLU 
Learning Outcomes 
1  To be able to determine numerical methods which can be used to make choice among multiple alternatives.  2  To be able to select best fit method for decision environment, make the right decision by using these methods. 

Mode of Delivery 
Face to Face 
Prerequisites and corequisities 
None 
Recommended Optional Programme Components 
None 
Course Contents 
In this course, decision making process under certainty, risk environment and uncertainty, statistical decision theory, game theory, probability theory and decision tree analysis approach subjects will be addressed. 
Weekly Detailed Course Contents 

1  Course objectives and outlines
   2  Decision making under uncertainty : The maximin criterion, the maximax criterion, the Laplace criterion, the Hurwitz criterion, the savage criterion
   3  Decision rules in risk environment: The maximum possibility criterion, the expected minimum opportunity cost, value of experimentation
   4  Decision trees : Drawing a decision tree, evaluating the decision tree, calculating the tree values, calculating the value of uncertain outcome nodes, calculating the value of decision nodes, making decision
   5  Game theory: The formulation of twoperson, zerosum games, solving simple games, games with mixed strategies
   6  Graphical solution procedure
   7  Solving by linear programming
   8  Midterm
   9  Queuing theory: Basic structure of queuing models
   10  Queuing models involving exponential distribution, queuing models based on the birthdeath process
   11  Queuing models involving nonexponential distributions
   12  Queuing networks, single server queuing models
   13  Queuing networks, single server queuing models
   14  Multiple server queuing models
   15  Multiple server queuing models
   16  Final Exam
  

Recommended or Required Reading 
Raiffa, Howard, Schlaifer, Robert, “Statistical Decision Theory”, John Wiley & Sons, 1st Edition, (2000). 
Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods 
Activities are given in detail in the section of "Assessment Methods and Criteria" and "Workload Calculation" 
Assessment Methods and Criteria   Language of Instruction  English  Work Placement(s)  None 

Workload Calculation 